Security and defence

Threats to Australia's vital interests

Concern about non-traditional security threats has eclipsed traditional security threats for Australians in 2020. COVID-19 and ‘drought and water shortages’ are seen as the top threats to Australia's vital interests. Three quarters of Australians say ‘novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and other potential pandemics’ (76%) and ‘drought and water shortages’ (77%) pose a critical threat to Australia's vital interests in the next ten years. In 2008, only 47% of Australians saw ‘AIDS, avian flu and other potential epidemics’ as a critical threat. With a global recession looming in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, concern about the economy has risen sharply. In 2020, 71% say that ‘a severe downturn in the global economy’ is a critical threat, a 20-point increase from 2019. Along with the threat of drought, most Australians say ‘environmental disasters such as bushfires and floods’ (67%) and climate change (59%) both pose a critical threat. As in past years, a significant gap exists between younger and older Australians’ views of climate change as a critical threat. Seven in ten Australians aged 18‒44 (70%) say climate change is a critical threat, compared with 49% of those over 45. Similarly, 76% of 18‒44-year-old Australians see ‘environmental disasters such as bushfires and floods’ as a critical threat, compared with 59% of Australians aged 45 and over. The gap narrows for ‘drought and water shortages’, where 81% of 18‒44-year-olds say they are a critical threat, compared with 73% of those over 45.After a spike in concern about foreign interference in 2019, coinciding with a federal election year in Australia, 42% now say ‘foreign interference in Australian politics’ is a critical threat, a seven-point drop from 2019. Only four in ten Australians (41%) say ‘the rise of authoritarian systems of government around the world’ is a critical threat. Despite highly publicised terrorist attacks in 2019 in New Zealand, Sri Lanka and elsewhere, only 46% say international terrorism poses a critical threat, down 15 points from 2019. A third of Australians (37%) say Iran’s nuclear program is a critical threat, a 16-point decline from 2014. A similar number (35%) see ‘a military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan’ as a critical threat to Australia’s interests.

Security and defence
Threats to Australia's vital interests

Question

Below is a list of possible threats to the vital interest of Australia in the next ten years. Do you see this as a critical threat, an important but not critical threat, or not an important threat at all?

This question was last asked in 2020.

0%
25%
50%
75%
100%

Drought and water shortages

COVID-19 and other potential epidemics

A severe downturn in the global economy

Environmental disasters such as bushfires and floods

Climate change

International terrorism

The dissemination of false information or fake news

Foreign interference in Australian politics

The rise of authoritarian systems of government around the world

Iran's nuclear program

A military conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan

From 2006-2009, this question asked about 'global warming'.

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